Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction U.S. Open - New York · Sep 9, 2026

Analysis

Both men arrive in the New York quarter-final in good working order: Shelton has been grinding out four-set wins, beating Denis Shapovalov 3-1 on 5 September and taking down Tallon Griekspoor 3-1 in back-to-back matches at the end of August. Alcaraz, by contrast, has been far more economical, sweeping past Yibing Wu 3-0 on 4 September and saving energy for exactly this kind of night. That difference in court time matters over best-of-five, and it points to the Spaniard being the fresher man late. Shelton's weapons travel well on a quick hard court — the lefty serve and the forehand can steal a set on their own, and he has the crowd and the arena to feed off. But Alcaraz's return depth, movement and ability to reset a rally from defence make him the more complete problem to solve across five sets, and he rarely gives away long stretches of a match. The lean is Alcaraz in four, with Shelton very much capable of grabbing a set on serve.